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First goal significance

By rwakeley8/2/2019 18:29Fri Feb 8 18:29:33 2019

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Based on results with an win or loss outcome. The scores in this division have been erratic to say the least - so I delved right in to see if I could find anything remotely interesting - and then see if it correlated to anywhere else.
First conclusion - coming from behind is exceedingly tough. The results at face value disguise some real obvious facts. 302 games in, 46 result in a team coming from behind to win, (home and away) - 15 percent - tough ask. Of those, only 12 times a team as won away, having conceded first. A mere 4 percent.
Compared to the Premier League - 202 games with a win/loss outcome - 31 away wins coming from behind - Yep, 15 percent. Only 10 teams have won having conceded first - Yep - A mere 4 percent. At this point, I'm getting board! In fact, if Man City fail to win the league, the 3 games they led in versus Palace, Leicester and Newcastle is clearly what's done it.
With goals flying in our league most games, I then looked at the first goal scored and it's impact. Southern Lg. When the home side takes the lead they have gone on to win 3 out of 4 only losing 12 percent. When the away side has scored first they have gone onto win 64 percent of the time, only one in four being lost. It's remarkably significant. The Premier Lg, not surprisingly dominated by the Big 6, is even more correlated. First goal by the home side results in a nearly 80 percent win rate. Away comes in at around the 70 percent mark. I think it's sorry reflection of our top flight. My old fashioned take. Teams at the top had the most clean sheets - not any more. Man Utd only 1 at home - Arsenal none away. The non-league universe is a free-for-all. Emphasis is on complete attack. I have back-tested my theory on tables from my childhood era and I think its fair to say the top teams could grind out a result on their travels when required. Teams incapable of doing so, you would feel would get found out. I think there's a general deterioration all round and so this may not be the case. I do believe if Hendon are ever to get out of this division, grinding out results away is going to play a significant part.

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