History Repeating Itself

By rwakeley19/10/2019 23:52Sat Oct 19 23:52:51 2019

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Whilst you guys were paddling in the sea or consuming pints of Doombar, some of us were trying to make sense of where we are at. Hence, I've spent the afternoon compiling a weekly points analysis going back the previous decade.
Based on our league record, on average 1.695 pts per game would reach the final play-off spot, 1.19ppg would avoid relegation. Not as bad a picture as some believe. Currently 11 games in 7pts. For the record, same games last season, a record equalling 23pts! Despite some valid concerns, it means pretty much nothing based on history. The current position is the worst start over the past decade, roughly matched by 2012-13 when we had 8pts after 11 games. We only had 18pts come 31st Dec. We however managed to finish a credible 10th! We only had 19pts come 31st Dec 2015/16 season and finished 19th! Which tells us absolutely nothing!
I have a theory skewed towards 3 year cycles and changing directions. I looked last season at the average longevity of sides in the Connie South and the figure came in around 2.8 years. Ironically, Hendon appear to have a successful season every 3 years. 2012-13 we finished 10th, then 8th, then 2nd. The next three years, 19th, 18th then 3rd. Last year 16th, fill in the blanks. There are similarities in the development of those sides. First thing struck me 2012, appearances, the lack of width. The next season the addition of Anthony Thomas and Taggs. This underpinned some recent thoughts as to how we may progress. More of a coincidence, but it may inadvertently show it does take time to build a side. I maintain James is actually moving at pace in terms of putting the pieces in place. Certainly an improvement in home form would help. I think we are going into a new phase with new additions that could help move us along in the process. Interesting to what transpires.