Some more rambling thoughts

By rwakeley25/2/2018 17:24Sun Feb 25 17:24:42 2018

Views: 2731

Spent the afternoon evaluating FWP. I have drawn up 2 separate tables - one for the top 9 teams inter-league clashes and 1 table for games left for those sides inclusive of all oppositions. Interesting findings.
They have us reaching 83pts derived from 6 wins, 5 draws and only 2 losses! In the mini-league at the top they have us as the only team failing to gain a win against our fellow promotion candidates - so unlikely. Folkestone meanwhile have a devilish end with 5 games against top 9 sides in the final month.
FWP's as a predictive model looks interesting under the microscope.
In 25 games within the top mini-league they are predicting only 1 away win, 11 draws and only 4 games with a winning margin more than 1 goal. No winning margin above 2-0. The key emphasis on such a skewed home win suggests that it does stabilize the final outcome. Ironically, should they get all the results wrong and games are won by the away sides, the outcome with regards to the final table would be almost the same!
Maintain what we have done to date, we have a realistic chance.