Re: Greener Grass
One fan I spoke to recently expressed the notion that he would expect Hendon to struggle should they ever get promoted. With that notion in mind, today, I've produced a timeline of all clubs to pass through the Connie South. Spare a thought for Chelmsford - 6 failed play-off attempts. WSM the only ever-present in 14 years, looking unlikely to maintain that record. What really struck me was the average time spent in the league once having gained entry via relegation from the Conference or promotion from the feeders. The average time spent by a club in the division is a mere 3.8 years. I then did the Ryman Prem - it's even less, despite Hendon & Harrow being ever-present over the same time-frame. What is really quite noticeable is that around 3.8 years sides that have survived usually have a reversal in fortunes - Wealdstone take note. Smack in the eye of the storm. The likes of stalwarts, Maidenhead and Welling all have noticable 3 or 4 year changes of directions in their final league positions. Co-incidence perhaps. Through-out both divisions many sides have initial 2 or 3 attempts at the play-offs before dropping. A lot of these sides appear to be the Coastal teams. Heavily dependent upon momentum. They can also fall amongst the hardest. I'm pretty sure that there are various individual reasons behind these patterns. The behaviour of the consistency is interesting. Identifying the clubs and their approach is also visable. I'm starting to think a well designed mathematical model may well be able to predict the league. Maybe I'm going mad! Consolidation rather than going for broke is clearly beneficial. I was going to overlay these teams performances with managerial replacements as things were being flagged up there - I've decided to leave my predictive analysis, or complete garbage, on hold, and go down the pub instead! Happy New Year Folks!