Re: Looking at the table..
..and the fixtures left for the teams at the bottom and we're no wiser as to who may go down. One thing that's for certain is that Sudbury look doomed now. They got a mauling Saturday and they look dead and buried. Their three remaining fixtures look tough. Tonbridge away, Needham home and Canvey away. The most I can possibly see them getting is one win if that and I doubt they'll get that but if we assume one win that will give them 47 pts or possibly 48 at the very best with another draw. That won't be enough and they are down.
K's are one place above us in the table with a point more but a vastly superior goal difference. Their three fixtures are Leiston H, Merstham A, H&W - H . They got a decent 0-0 yesterday at midtable Worthing who have completely taken their foot off the gas. To me the K's fixtures look tough but the team has a new manager and looks harder to beat in any case. Home to Leiston is going to be a big day for them. Leiston are hot and cold. They look fairly set in the play offs but they still need a couple of wins to be certain of a play off spot. From a Green point of view we need Leiston to be at their very best in this game and at least not to lose to K's. Anything bar a K's win. Their next match away to Merstham is a must win for them and IS winnable. Merstham currently have 5 games left to play and already on 53. They need one more win to be mathematically safe. They'll get it sooner or later but I expect K's to either win or draw that game. For us a draw is obviously better. Their final game is against championship seekers H&W. By then it will be do or die for both sides. I really expect Havant to win that whatever K's try to do. Worst case scenario is that K's will pick up 4 more points and end the season on 52 but I'm hoping that it will be 51 at the most.
Above them and just outside the relegation zone is Leatherhead who lost at Leiston yesterday but only 1-0. They've been in great form before that as we only know too well. How that match could come back to haunt us! Their last three games are home to moneybags 'ricay, Away to Police and Home to Harlow. Ricay fluffed their lines yesterday big time and are now out of the play off picture again but I expect them to still fight for that last berth in the P/O's. Policemen are on 53 points so a point here and there will do them and I think they might even beat the Tanners at home but I expect them to beat Harlow at home in the last fixture. Therefore I expect Leatherhead to be on either 51 or 52 points at most.
Folkestone are on 49 and with their three games left they know they need a win an possibly a draw but a win might be enough. Enfield away is a loss for them, Home to Tonbridge is very hard for them too and they could lose that or scrape a point. Last game is at Grays and they have to win. Maybe Grays can give their supporters something to cheer and take Folkestone down with them! I think Folkestone are in real trouble and could end up getting only 1 more point or at best scrape a win at Grays and 3 more which puts them on either 50 pts or 52, hopefully the former!
Burgess Hill got a massive result on Saturday as our neighbours in Harrow couldn't even muster a point against them. That was really bad for us. If HB had held them to a draw they'd be on 48 too now and right in the S.H.I.T. They now know they need a win from their final three to stay up. Home to Dulwich i expect them to lose. Dulwich are very good away. Worthing away who have been very poor lately is one that I hope they lose but I'm not sure, but maybe Worthing can wake up and they need to for our sake. That leaves them a nervy home encounter with terrible travellers Merstham who will be safe. They must win that game and I expect them to leaving them on 53 and safe.
That only leaves Canvey as outsiders to go down. They are in very decent form in their move away from the bottom reaches of the table. I expect them to scrape through. They have two tough games with H&W and 'ricay but Sudbury home should be a shoe in really but there might possibly be a bit of pressure on them on the last Saturday if they need a win but I expect them to get it.
That leaves us haha. I think it's pretty safe to say 50 points alone isn't probably going to do it unless all the other teams have a calamitous last three games. 51 with our inferior goal difference might also not do it but it could if two of the teams above us win absolutely no more games. Draws they can have but 2 of them must hopefully win no more games. That leaves 52 or 53 points as almost guaranteed safety. In other words we'll either need to win 2 or win 1 and draw 2. 1 win and 1 draw might not be enough with our bad goal difference but it could be if like I said 2 teams above do not win another game..
What and end though. I've said it a few times but I'm gonna say it again. If we win the last game with Staines, I think we'll stay up. That's the feeling I get or at least I hope that. I get the feeling that final afternoon is going to see different teams going down at different times from 3pm onwards. Of course we've still got two quick games to play next week that will decide if the last match has any significance at all. This is like purgatory! :-)
Next article in this thread: Re: Looking at the table.. by embee9/4 15:12Sun Apr 9 15:12:13 2017
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